Friday, 17 March 2017

Patrick O'Brien (1944-2017)

Just to let everyone know that my father Patrick O'Brien died of a heart attack in France this morning.

Will write more later.

Catherine O'Brien in Cambridge, UK.

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Tuesday 21 March 2017


"... there [is] really no way to overcome the real dilemma of existence, the one of the mortal animal who at the same time is conscious of his mortality. A person spends years coming into his own, developing his talent, his unique gifts, perfecting his discriminations about the world, broadening and sharpening his appetite, learning to bear the disappointments of life, becoming mature, seasoned – finally a unique creature in nature, standing with some dignity and nobility and transcending the animal condition; no longer driven, no longer a complex reflex, not stamped out of any mold. And then the real tragedy [...]: that it takes sixty years of incredible suffering and effort to make such an individual, and then he is good only for dying."

~ Ernest Becker (1973). The denial of death. New York: The Free Press, p. 268.

Thank you for all the comments here and tributes to Patrick on the PlanetF1 forum:
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14138&sid=c78b467f7314bb9885c9e8432e50387e

Hello everyone, my name is Brendan O’Brien – I’m Patrick’s son.

Our family’s grief since he died on Friday morning has been almost unbearable. I wanted to take the time to post though because, although my dad had many and varied interests and a wide group of friends across the world, F1 was his passion and this forum – and his many virtual friends on it - was an important part of that.

My dad took me to a number of Grands Prix in our native South Africa when I was a kid, showing me around the pits and once - in the early years, must’ve been around the late-70s - putting his hands over my ears when the noise of the cars going by on the straight startled me and made me cry. Despite thoroughly enjoying the experiences, though, I never really picked up his passion for F1 to the same extent. Rather, we had a shared passion for sports cars – his knowledge about their design and history was almost as vast as his knowledge about F1. Some of my happiest memories are of weekends spent with him in the garage at home in Johannesburg helping him to restore his two beloved Alfa Romeo Giulietta Sprint Speciales.

This is difficult to write. I keep cracking up.

He reminded me just a few weeks ago about how I had dragged him, ‘kicking and screaming’ (his words), onto the Planet F1 Forum back in 2011. Being of an earlier generation, and never a man with much patience for computers, it was an initial challenge to get him comfortable with the technicalities of posting and forum usage. I was determined that he should do this though - living in rural France, he needed an outlet for his F1 passion and you, the members of the PF1 Forum, provided that.

Most of you will be aware of the Ratings System that he had developed. He achieved so much in life, but the Ratings System was really his life’s major work and the culmination of everything he knew about F1. My sister, Catherine, spent countless hours with him over the past 3 or 4 years to help him formalize the work into book form. He really valued the input and knowledge of so many forum members in discussing his work and testing his conclusions. I also know that he regarded and valued a number of forum members as genuine friends, although he never met any of you.

I am struggling to rationalize his death. He was active and fit, and living life as fully and with as much passion as ever. He was only 72, and had so much more to give. The best I can do is that his family and friends were lucky to have had him in their lives for the period that they did. He was the most thoroughly decent and kind man, and his empathy for all living things – whether human, animal or plant – was on an otherworldly level. Everything that is good in me, I learnt from him.

I moved out of home to go to university when I was 18. This was followed by various moves to countries overseas over the years, which meant that we typically only saw each other annually. In May 2016, however, I was able to fly him over from France to my home in Canada for a dream road trip for both of us. I fulfilled a long-held wish a few years ago of becoming a Porsche 911 owner, and my dad came over for a 4-day road trip with 10 Porsche friends of mine through the forested and winding roads of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia. The driving pace was at times spirited, and my dad said he could still hear the wonderful sound of flat 6s echoing in his mind for months after the trip. He seat-hopped from car-to-car through the trip, getting to know the others and sampling different flavours of Porsche. As was Dad’s way, in the short time he knew the others on the trip, he made an impact with his kindness, his humour, and his genuine interest in others’ lives. On the last day of the trip, which fell on his 72nd birthday, he and I peeled off from the group and made a special journey to Frank Lloyd Wright’s masterpiece, Fallingwater, in southern Pennsylvania. One of his other passions (and, in fact, his profession) was architecture, and Fallingwater had been an icon to him since his student days. The in-depth house tour was a spiritual experience for him, and I am grateful we got to do the trip together.

He travelled over to Canada again in September 2016 with my mother to meet his first grandchild, my son, who was born in August. That was the last time I saw him. I had booked for him to come over for another Porsche road trip in May 2017. He was so excited about this and about meeting all of his Porsche friends from last year again.

I’ve written more than intended, and it’s all been done in the midst of a grief I’ve never before experienced and which feels as though it will never end. However, I do want to thank you, his PF1 forum friends, for your engagement with him and for the knowledgeable outlet that you provided. It was important to him and he really appreciated it.

--

He probably pushed F1 metrics forward further than anybody else has ever done and his contribution will not be forgotten.
~ mikeyg123, Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:44 pm, http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14138

His rating system was very interesting, it brought some kind of consistent view of F1 throughout the decades and offered me a lot of insight.
~ mds, Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:16 am , http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14138&start=40

The guy was a statistics machine, very interesting posts.
~ kimilandia, Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:26 pm, http://f1fanatics.forumakers.com/t2121-sad-news

...a most knowledgeable and charming man. I always thought he must be quite mad to be attempting to rate so many era's, drivers etc. something my brain could not even contemplate, definitely a touch of genius in him.
~ bauble, Tues Mar 21, 2017, http://f1fanatics.forumakers.com/t2121-sad-news


He [...] had one of the greatest wealths of Motorsport history of anyone on earth. 
~ F1 MERCENARY Fri Mar 17, 2017, http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14138&sid=c78b467f7314bb9885c9e8432e50387e

***

Friday, 27 January 2017

EXPLANATORY CHAPTERS NOW AVAILABLE

Having published most of my findings, one volume for each decade (1894-2013), I have now published my thesis explaining my Rating System. Titled 'Explanatory Chapters', this soft-cover 188-page book is available from Lulu.com. Click on the following link for a preview or to buy:

http://www.lulu.com/shop/patrick-obrien/patrick-obriens-grand-prix-rating-system-explanatory-chapters-1894-2013/paperback/product-23045368.html


Patrick O’Brien’s Grand Prix Rating System: Explanatory Chapters 1894-2013
By Patrick O'Brien
Paperback, 188 Pages           

The 2013 Formula One season was dominated by the Vettel/ Red Bull-Renault package, which won 13 of the 19 races. Many reckon that Vettel is one of the great drivers. Some however argue that Vettel was fortunate in having the fastest car, the Red Bull-Renault. Just how good was Vettel compared with his peers? This publication compares grand prix and Formula One drivers, cars and packages in simple arithmetic terms. For the first time the driver has been separated from the car and each is expressed as separate performance elements that make up the performance package. Just how much current four-time champion Vettel contributes to the Red Bull-Renault’s recent dominance is explained and quantified. The author’s analysis starts from the first car race in 1894, from Paris to Rouen, and includes over 1,200 grand prix races. The Patrick O’Brien Grand Prix Rating System is divided into 13 volumes, one for each decade since racing’s inception in 1894. This is a fourteenth book, presenting my methodology.

Review on Planet F1 by pokerman , 26 Jan 2017.
Post subject: Re: Greatest Formula 1 driver, http://forum.planet-f1.com

"...I have to respect the amount of work you put into your system and it seems to be totally without bias which is to be commended."

Review on Planet F1 by Lotus49, 6 Mar 2017.
Post subject: Re: Underdog winners

... performing in 'two stages' during 2012 makes sense, looking at my race-by-race running average figures. :thumbup: It's an aspect of your ratings I enjoy that you incorporate both car and driver as a package as well as individually. We're usually on the same page, with the odd exception of course, ...

http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14081&p=675379&hilit=enjoy#p675379

***

Sunday, 7 August 2016

Letters from Grand Prix personalities








My wife and I met Paul Frere at East London in December 1994 when selling my 1994 book there. He won the 1960 South Africa Grand Prix as well as le Mans for Ferrari. He drove for the Ferrari GP team when Fangio was there, and finished second in the 1956 Belgian Grand Prix! A nicer person one could not meet and low key like his letterhead, good taste all round. I took him for a nighttime drive around Johannesburg in our 159 Alfa Romeo and explained some history, showed him the Munro Drive view. Jolly pleased I did not crunch a gear-change!


Paul Frere note in Belgian GP book, 1994.

 Paul Frere's  inscribed book a sent to me January 1995.





Letter found by me in an old copy of Gerald Rose's 'A Record of Motor Racing: 1894–1908', published by the Royal Automobile Club, 1909; re-published 1949 by Motor Racing Publication.

***

Tuesday, 22 September 2015

1930-1939 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. The Patrick O’Brien Grand Prix Rating System is divided into 13 volumes, one for each decade of the pre-Formula One era (1894-1949) and Formula One era (1950-2013). The Formula One era, 1950-2013, was published last year [2014]. The ninth decade (1930-1939) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The ninth book contains the 1930-1939 seasons, is 165 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

The eighth book contains the 1940-1949 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

The seventh book contains the 1950-1959 seasons, is 91 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

The sixth book contains the 1960-1969 seasons, is 82 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

The fifth book contains the 1970-1979 seasons, is 90 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

The fourth book contains the 1980-1989 seasons, is 81 pages, soft-cover bound and is available online here.

The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.

The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in all books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and reflect a spread of competitors for each season.

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:


***

Saturday, 15 August 2015

1940-1949 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. The Patrick O’Brien Grand Prix Rating System is divided into 13 volumes, one for each decade of the pre-Formula One era (1894-1949) and Formula One era (1950-2013). The Formula One era, 1950-2013, was published last year [2014]. The eighth decade (1940-1949) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The eighth book contains the 1940-1949 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The seventh book contains the 1950-1959 seasons, is 91 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The sixth book contains the 1960-1969 seasons, is 82 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fifth book contains the 1970-1979 seasons, is 90 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fourth book contains the 1980-1989 seasons, is 81 pages, soft-cover bound and is available online here.


The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.

  
The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in all books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and reflect a spread of competitors for each season.

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:


***

Friday, 10 July 2015

Review of Roger Smith’s ‘Analysing Formula 1’ (2008)

BOOK TITLE: ANALYSING FORMULA 1
AUTHOR: ROGER SMITH
PUBLISHER: HAYNES PUBLISHING
DATE: January 2008
REVIEW: PATRICK O’BRIEN

This book is an enjoyable read, for Roger Smith is obviously a keen and knowledgeable enthusiast who has delved into racing. Smith claims not to have based his findings on simple wins or win rates and purports to consider the effects of the car and the opposition – factors crucial to gauging driver performance. For someone who is not a journalist, Smith’s text is remarkably proficient. The book bears some uncanny similarities to my analytical book, Grand Prix: A Century of Racing (published by AA Racing, November 1994), in terms of being based on descriptive statistics in the form of simple bar graphs, win rates, rivals wins, grid position vs wins, etc.

THE PROBLEM WITH RANKING DRIVERS
Despite the impressive graphs, matrices and explanations, Smith’s result proclaiming that three drivers ranked at the top – Fangio (career 1950-58), Clark (career 1960-68) and Schumacher (career 1991-2012) – makes one question the methodology. Common sense alone tells us that it is not possible to directly compare drivers across eras, let alone actually rank them. How can it be stated with any certainty that Fangio was better than Schumacher and Clark? Or that these three are better than any of Alonso, Senna, Prost, Lauda, Andretti, Piquet, Stewart, Surtees, Moss or Ascari? There are too many incomparable variables in each career that defy comparative measurement.

In contrast, my Rating System ranks drivers in tiers based on my analysis of their comparative time-based speeds. By my System the fastest drivers of each era rate equal in the first tier, from Fangio, Ascari and Moss through to Prost, Schumacher and Alonso. I certainly would not be able to rank them due to incomparable variables. It is not possible to rank any of the top drivers across eras as greater or as the greatest. They never faced each other and cannot be directly compared.

CAR QUALITY
Smith claims to have taken the quality of the car into account (“it is rare that a great driver can prosper without a great car, or vice versa” (p. 10)), yet some of his findings seem to be results-based data, bolstering the dominance of the drivers who he deemed to be in the ‘top three’, yet he neglects the fact that these three drivers, Fangio, Clark and Schumacher, had superior cars for longer periods of time than most.

When Fangio, Clark and Schumacher did not drive the best cars, their results were not dominant: Fangio-Maserati in 1953, Clark-Lotus in 1961 and 1966 and Schumacher-Ferrari 1996-99 and 2005. Proof that no matter how talented a driver, his performance is largely dictated by the competitiveness of his car.

CAR MODEL VARIATIONS
The many variables in F1 racing make it so complex that any comparative analysis has to be detailed and a methodology consistently applied. Not only does the car largely determine a driver’s competitiveness, but each car model’s performance varies on different circuits, and when upgraded and modified, within and across seasons. Such a complex set of variables significantly impacts results. On this score, Smith appears to have made some generalised, sweeping assumptions to inform his analysis.

For instance, the Maserati 250F seems to have been treated as one model, Smith stating that in 1957 Fangio drove the 250F Maserati “entering its fourth season and nearing the end of its competitive life”. The 250F was in fact made in five quite differing versions each with varying levels of performance relative to the front-runners:

● the initial, belouvred 1954 model
● the upgraded, unlouvred and more competitive 1955 version with which Moss won the 1956 Monaco GP
● the ‘low-drag’ 1956 model influenced by the Vanwall’s aerodynamic shape
● the ‘offset’ 1956 model with which Moss won the GP at Monza
● the final 1957 version which Fangio drove to his fifth crown, which was by far the most competitive of the 250Fs in relation to the opposition.

My Rating studies compare on-track time differentials only, and do not rely on wins, results, places, etc. For example, I discovered that the performance between the various Maserati 250F models varied in cases by over 1.0%. Considering that the winning margins (seasonal averages) for championship-winning packages have been 0.2%–0.5%, incorporation of such detailed factors is crucial to any comparative analysis. Fangio’s debut win in the 1954 Argentine GP with the first 250F was unfairly achieved. The Frana and Gonzalez Ferraris had been leading and faster almost throughout,. When Fangio pitted, more than the permitted number of mechanics attended him. Ferrari protested and slowed their two cars. Fangio swept past and his win was wildly applauded and the officials did nothing about Ferrari’s legitimate protest. Yet this win would have contributed to Fangio’s tally… In 1957 Fangio was driving the fastest car of the season, and the most competitive of all 250Fs; it most certainly was not ‘nearing the end of its competitive life’ as Smith asserts. Fangio enjoyed a wide margin of car superiority over the rival Vanwall and Lancia-Ferrari cars in 1957. Bare race results do not distinguish such qualitative ‘quirks’ of racing performance behaviour.

Similarly, Smith treated the Lotus-Cosworth 49 as one model. It was in fact built in three basic versions of widely varying perfromance in relation to its rivals:

● the original Type 49 of 1967 and driven to Clark’s last win at Kyalami in 1968;
● the longer wheelbase 49B of 1968, later fitted with aerofoils, which Graham Hill drove to his second title; my calculations showed this car to have been a whopping 1.5% faster than the first short-wheelbase version.
● the final 49C driven until early 1970 by Rindt.

There is no indication in Smith’s book that the widely differing performance of these Lotus 49 variations has been factored in.

One significant model variation clearly ignored by Smith is the 1989 McLaren-Honda MP4/5. Smith states of Prost and Senna: “over those two seasons 1988 and 1989, they started 32 races together in identical machinery”. This was only true of 1988; for 1989 Senna was provided with superior engines, such that, from parity race performance in 1988, Prost was bizarrely 0.3% slower in 1989 and in qualifying suddenly a whole 1.0% slower than in 1988. Only Prost’s car set-up skills and sensitive, intelligent racing genius reduced the huge 1.0% qualifying gap to 0.3% for the races. At the time, nobody in the McLaren-Honda team knew about this engine favouritism – except of course Honda who did not divulge that they were favouring Senna. Prost stated: “No way is a driver suddenly a second a lap slower”. Prost’s complaints about Senna having more power were dismissed by the British press as ‘whingeing’. Years later, one of Honda’s engineers confessed that Honda had indeed favoured Senna over Prost. Smith has not differentiated the data for this 1989 season, which invalidates half of the information used in the Senna-Prost comparison, during the only two years in which they were team-mates.

The varying performances of models across seasons can significantly affect driver results. For example, when the dominant 1978 Lotus-Cosworth 79 competed in 1979, its performance relative to the front-runners was way below what it had been in 1978. Similarly with the 312T3 Ferrari in 1979, the Ferrari F2004 in 2005 and many other existing models when carried over into a new season. Smith’s work glosses over such distinctions, jeopardising the validity of his measurement methodology and his findings.

DRIVER CAREER STAGES
Another generalised statement that casts doubt on Smith’s data informing his rankings is the following: “Moss was Fangio’s equal at best”. Yet when Moss and Fangio raced the Maserati 250F/57 as team-mates at Buenos Aires in January 1957, Moss outqualified Fangio by 1.1 seconds! In the race and after an unscheduled nine-lap pitstop for repairs, Moss made up two laps on “The Old Man” (Juan Fangio). This was not indicative of equals! This highlights another variable that needs to be taken into account: driver competitiveness is not consistent over a career, even for the best drivers. Usually rookies build up to their peak after three to five seasons, and older men’s speed tapers towards career end. This was why Moss was faster than Fangio by 1957. As Niki Lauda said of his own last two seasons 1984-1985: “You cannot go at it as you did when young” and Prost of his 1988-1989 seasons: “Ayrton [Senna] was faster than me; after ten years you no longer go flat-out” (quotes paraphrased from magazine articles). Much depends on which stage of their respective careers drivers faced each other. This factor also precludes direct driver comparisons.

COMPETITIVE TEAM-MATES
Roger Smith correctly states: “Senna’s rivalry did for Prost’s aspirations just as Prost did for Senna” – that is, they spurred each other on. Yet the crucial factor of competitive team-mates does not seem to have been taken into account with the three whom he finds superior to all: Fangio, Clark and Schumacher. Uniquely all three were spared competitive team-mates for most seasons throughout their careers. This means that their win rates and other statistics would be superior to those of drivers who had tougher team-mate competition, such as Senna and Prost, Piquet and Mansell, Hamilton and Rosberg or Moss and Brooks.

Fangio’s most competitive team-mates were Farina in 1950, Gonzalez in 1953 and Moss in 1955. However, at age 44, Farina was too old to really threaten Fangio, being 0.6% slower on season-average qualifying times, while the two younger men – Gonzalez and Moss – had too much deference for Fangio, who was almost a generation older, to really challenge him. In sum, Fangio was never seriously challenged in-house. Similarly with Clark; apart from 1960 when Surtees drove part-time for Lotus, Clark’s Lotus team-mates were notoriously way off-pace, not only as drivers but in equipment; the Number Two Lotus cars during Clark’s heyday were neglected by Colin Chapman (owner of Lotus and brilliant designer) and consequently so much slower and drastically unreliable. Lotus was really a one-man team. Similarly Schumacher was unchallenged, having self-selected his team-mates throughout his career, making sure they were not too competitive a threat.

There is no doubt this lack of in-house team-mate threat inflated Fangio’s, Clark’s and Schumacher’s results. In this respect their careers were so unlike those strong pairings that diluted each driver’s results, such as: Senna and Prost in 1988-1989, Moss-Brooks 1957-1958, Fittipladi-Peterson 1973, Scheckter-Villeneuve 1979, Prost-Lauda 1984, Mansell-Piquet 1986-1987 and Alonso-Hamilton 2007. How then can one compare the Fangio-Clark-Schumacher ‘sheltered’ career results with those of the other great drivers?

THE OPPOSITION
At least as important as a competitive, unhobbled team-mate are competitive rivals. Fangio, Clark and Schumacher were unable to dominate when they faced other top-rate drivers in good cars.

Fangio
Fangio was fortunate during part of his career that his main rival and driver-equal Ascari was neutralised:

● in 1950 by Ascari’s non-competitive Ferraris in 125C2 and 275 forms;
● in contrast was 1951 when the Ascari/ Ferrari package was almost as fast as the Fangio/Alfa Romeo and scored two wins to Fangio’s three.
● In 1953 Fangio’s Maserati was slower than Ascari’s Ferrari and Fangio managed just one, perhaps fortuitous, win at Monza.
● In 1954 Ascari missed most of the season, his Lancia only appearing for the final race at Barcelona, where he out-qualified Fangio’s Mercedes-Benz by a whopping 1.0 second and led until clutch failure. Earlier in the 1954 season Ascari had twice been released for one-off drives, in a Maserati 250F for the British GP and a Ferrari 625 in the Italian GP at Monza, which latter he led for 49 of the 80 laps in a titanic struggle with Fangio’s Mercedes-Benz. On both occasions Ascari’s cars failed to finish.
 Ascari crashed fatally after the first two races of 1955, thereby removing one of Fangio’s two greatest rivals.
● Fangio’s good fortune extended to the 1956 and 1957 seasons when his then strongest driver rival Moss was hampered by his slower Maserati and Vanwall cars.

These variables do not detract from Fangio’s undoubted ability, but they certainly boosted his results and negate valid and direct driver comparison with Ascari and Moss.

Clark
Clark was similarly smiled upon by good fortune and fate. From 1960 to at least 1968, his main driver rival and equal was in fact John Surtees. Barely acknowledged in Smith’s book, Surtees was the most hampered-by-poor-machinery great driver of all. Except for his initial four rookie appearances in a Lotus-Climax 18 in 1960, when he managed one second place and was leading Moss’ similar car before crashing on slippery tramlines in Oporto, and the first two events of 1966 with the Ferrari 312/66, Surtees drove inferior cars for the rest of his 13-year career! Consequently, Clark drove in a ‘partial vacuum’ and his results cannot be validly compared with Surtees’.

Schumacher
Michael Schumacher enjoyed the longest competitive career of any Formula driver to date, until he retired in 2006 – a span of 16 years. For the first three seasons, Schumacher did not have the fastest car, but still scored a few wins. In early 1994, Schumacher’s Benetton-Cosworth package was virtually equal in speed to Senna’s Williams-Renault package; after Senna’s death, and for the remainder of the 1994 season, the Schumacher/ Benetton-Cosworth was 0.5% clear of Damon Hill’s Williams-Renault package. For 1995 this advantage was reduced to a still comfortable 0.3% over Hill’s Williams-Renault package. No surprise then that Schumacher won titles in both years. Schumacher’s initial Ferrari season, 1996, saw his package 0.3% slower than Hill’s Williams-Renault; from 1997 to 1999 he was on par with Villeneuve’s Williams-Renault and then Hakkinen’s McLaren-Mercedes. He was not dominant in these four seasons. Just as with Fangio, Ascari, Clark, Andretti, Stewart, Lauda, Prost and Senna, Michael Schumacher only dominated when he had the best car. As with any driver in an off-pace car, Schumacher suffered in 2005, managing a farcical, single win at Indianapolis. For 2006, Schumacher and his Ferrari were 0.1% down on Alonso’s Renault, but as always Schumacher drove brilliantly to even-score with seven wins. Schumacher’s career reads very much like Clark’s and Fangio’s in terms of package competitiveness; all three enjoyed several seasons of car-team dominance. Which negates direct comparison with others who did not.

INEVITABLE STATISTICAL RESULTS
Roger Smith claims to have measured or quantified driver results based on the three elements that affect driver results: car, team-mate and opposition. However, Smith’s statistics-based data would inevitably favour his top three drivers – Fangio, Clark and Schumacher, who score higher than any of the other top drivers. How can one say Fangio is better than Stewart or Prost, for example? They never raced each other therefore they cannot be compared. Fangio’s 1954-55 team-mate Karl Kling told how Moss was much better at setting up the car, that Fangio was not interested; how would this benefit Stewart, Lauda and Prost who were famed for their knowledge of the technical side of F1? Would Fangio’s natural talent have been enough against these three? There are no absolute answers but certainly doubts over claiming who was greater.

Below, I set out some of my own statistics under the titles Smith mentions as relevant to driver assessment:

1. Percentage of career without top-rate team-mate: Fangio and Schumacher 100%, Piquet 92%, Clark 90% , Ascari 83%, Moss and Senna 82%, Stewart 78%, Prost 46% and Lauda 38%.

2. Percentage of career without top-rate rival package: Fangio 29%, Ascari, Clark, Schumacher 25%, Stewart 22%, Senna 18%, Lauda, Prost 8%, Moss and Piquet 0%.

3. Percentage of career driving multi-winning car (my definition being a minimum total of 3 wins per season by all team drivers): Fangio 85%, Senna 80%, Prost 78%, Schumacher and Stewart 75%, Clark 62%, Ascari 60%, Lauda 53%, Moss 45%, Piquet 30%.

Any results- or statistics-based method would place Fangio, Clark and Schumacher at the top, due to the three major factors that Smith mentions: car, team-mate and opposition. In contrast, Senna-Prost 1988-1989, Mansell-Piquet 1986-1987, Scheckter-Villeneuve 1979, Fittipaldi-Peterson 1973, Hamilton-Button in 2012, Hamilton- Rosberg 2013, were close-matched team-mates and therefore took wins off each other i.e., they ‘cancelled out each other’s results. One could say that Senna and Prost were racing against Schumacher in 1990-1994, for example, therefore it *is* possible to compare Schumacher with Senna and Prost. However, they were in different cars (Schumacher in a Benetton-Cosworth up until 1995 and thereafter in Ferrari; Senna in the McLaren-Honda and Prost in Ferrari and Williams-Renault). The incomparable cars meant that Schumacher was not directly comparable to Senna and Prost. In contrast, my Rating System separates the performance of the driver from the performance of the car, in order to compare drivers directly. 

In my opinion, Smith’s analysis is fundamentally results-based, proven by his ranking Fangio, Clark and Schumacher at the top. The three top drivers who never had an equal team-mate, who had superior cars for the longest period, and who enjoyed a greater percentage of their races without strong rivals were: Fangio, Clark and Schumacher!

In contrast, my Rating System identifies those drivers who were the fast but whose results were stunted through not having a fast enough car – prime examples being John Surtees (career 1960-1972) and Stirling Moss (career 1951-1961).

In addition, the incomparability of careers that are individually and intrinsically so disparate, make direct driver rankings – such as those Smith has attempted – impossible.

GRID POSITIONS AND WINNING
This very interesting and potentially informative topic has been treated in a surprisingly loose and incoherent manner for a professional statistician such as Roger Smith. Smith computes the number of winners from “the front row”! The front row in early times (1950s-early 1970s) consisted of three, four or five cars, whereafter it reduced to three and then to two cars. For the past 40 years or so, the front row has really been one car on the so-called staggered grids. Consequently Smith’s grid time intervals would show wide variations .He therefore compares apples and oranges, thereby nullifying comparative analysis. To be more accurate, the grid should have been segmented based on time- or percentage-intervals. By contrast, the method used by Smith is spurious.

CONCLUSION
Would Schumacher’s renowned team-involvement skills and other out-of-cockpit management overcome Fangio or Clark, or would their respective natural talents have prevailed? What of those other acknowledged car set-up and technical development specialists, Surtees, Stewart, Andretti, Lauda and Prost: how would they fare against Smith’s top three in equal equipment? What of the phenomenally fast and successful Ascari, Moss and Senna? No conclusive answers are possible.

The effect of the car on package performance is far more than that of the driver, unpopular though this fact is in today’s media-driven cult of the hero and the celebrity. Nico Rosberg correctly summed up the perennial and unequal situation in F1 racing (Cape Times, 20 March 2008): “...there are six or seven cars in front that we can’t beat […] That’s just the way it is in F1. It sucks, but that’s the way it is.” As shown above, not even Fangio, Ascari, Moss, Surtees, Clark, Stewart, Prost, Senna or Schumacher can do much about car inferiority when facing other top-rated drivers in good cars.

Unpalatably to many, race results – such as Smith appears to use – have always had far more to do with the lucky timing of driver-car combinations and circumstances than with the popularly perceived but seldom occurring direct, level-playing-field, head-to-head and measurable competition between drivers.

It is therefore not possible to differentiate or to make fine comparisons between ‘Top Drivers’ with any degree of quantifiable and convincing certainty. Smith’s work is definitely a step up in analysis from the popular ‘driver-ratings’ which are characterised by being lineally ranked and scientifically woolly – being grounded in nothing more than emotion and personal opinion. However, Smith’s ultimate conclusions – that Fangio, Clark and Schumacher were the top three Formula One drivers – remain an illogical and unsubstantiated leap.

© Patrick O’Brien. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

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Wednesday, 25 February 2015

2015 update

Since completing publication of the 7 decades of Formula 1 (1950-2013) - now available in 7 volumes on Amazon, I have been getting the 1940s book and 1930s book ready for publication. The remaining 4 volumes (1894-1929) will follow after these two. Thanks for visiting.