Wednesday 12 September 2012

PACKAGE RATINGS AFTER MONZA, RACE 2012/13

After race 2012/13, the Italian GP at Monza, my season average ratings show the following ranking and values:

Rank
Package
Rating
1
Hamilton/McLaren-Mercedes
100.0
2

Vettel/Red Bull-Renault
Grosjean/Lotus-Renault
Raikkonen/Lotus-Renault
100.1
100.1
100.1
3
Alonso/Ferrari
100.2
4
Schumacher/Mercedes
100.4
5
Webber/Red Bull-Renault
100.5
6
Button/McLaren-Mercedes
Rosberg/Mercedes
Massa/Ferrari
Perez/Sauber-Ferrari
100.6
100.6
100.6
100.6
7
Maldonado/Williams-Renault
100.7
8
Kobayashi/Sauber-Ferrari
100.8
9
Di Resta/Force India-Mercedes
Hulkenberg/Force India-Ferrari
Senna/Williams-Renault
100.9
100.9
100.9
10
Ricciardi/Toro Rosso-Ferrari
101.2
11
Vergne/Toro Rosso-Ferrari
101.3
12
D’Ambrosio/Lotus-Renault
101.4
13
Kovalainen/Caterham-Cosworth
Petrov/Caterham-Cosworth
102.3
102.3
14
Glock/Marussia-Cosworth
Pic/Marussia-Cosworth
103.3
103.3
15
De la Rosa/HRT-Cosworth
104.4
16
Karthikeyan/HRT-Cosworth
104.4


Bear in mind these are season averages, calculated on running totals. The base figure of 100.0 for the Hamilton/McLaren-Mercedes, is the fastest. It can be read as a percentage or as a lap time of 100.0 seconds. The rest follow at a minimum of one decimal intervals upwards. So a package rated at 100.1 (the Vettel/Red Bull-Renault) is 0.1% or 0.1 second per lap slower. The Ricciardo/Toro Rosso-Ferrari at 101.2 is 1.2% or 1.2 seconds per lap slower and the de la Rosa and Karthikeyan HRT-Cosworths rated at 104.4 are 4.4 seconds per lap off-pace. These are not driver ratings, but are for driver-and-car, the whole package.

Is Sebastian counting his championship chickens correctly?
I do not count races that had safety car deployments nor race times when a package suffers a grid penalty. These factors ‘ unnaturally’ skew times and results. Races in which an individual package suffers obvious trouble have also been excluded. Only those events in which packages ran well are counted. Then truer speed differences can be measured.

Package Ratings do vary race-to-race, but once the season is underway, the average movement is gradual, if at all. Compared to my last table done after race 2012/9, the changes in most ratings have been minimal. Greatest movements have been by the Button/McLaren-Mercedes which improved by 0.3 and the Perez/Sauber-Ferrari which slowed by 0.3. The Petrov/Caterham-Cosworth improved by 0.2. All the rest stayed as they were at 2012/9 or moved up or down by just 0.1. That is by one hundredth of a second per lap! The racing is indeed close.

However, some packages, or rather the cars, changed significantly since race 2013/3 in China. The Alonso/Ferrari rated then at 100.64 and has now improved to 100.2. More dramatically, the Raikkonen/Lotus-Renault rated 100.9 in China and improved to 100.1 now. The Button/McLaren-Mercedes average slowed from 100.4 in Shanghai to 100.6 now, reflecting Jenson’s mid-season struggles with set-up. Two experienced drivers Kovalainen and Glock have had their team-mates Petrov and Pic close the gap and now rate equal. There is so much that can be read into the detailed stats. However it is the overall, season average trends that matter here. Speed and consistency are paramount.

The Hamilton/McLaren-Mercedes has consistently rated fastest of all at 100.0, closely chased by the Grosjean and Raikkonen Lotus-Renaults and the Vettel Red Bull-Renault all on 100.1.The Alonso/Ferrari package is on 100.2, then perhaps surprisingly the Schumacher/Mercedes is next on 100.4. Michael must be driving well, for he has pulled ahead of team-mate Rosberg for the first time since his 2010 comeback. Or is Nico becoming disillusioned with the team’s inability to win?

As everyone is rightly saying, 2012 has to be one of the closest and most exciting seasons of all.

***

4 comments:

  1. Wow, certainly shows how close it is! And how good Schumi is doing, how poorly Button has done, and how Senna and Maldo are actually closer than it appears...?

    But Hamilton no 1! I know many people who'll be happy to hear that ;-0)

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  2. Patrick, have been reading your blog and it is very interesting. Rather than a package view update which everyone kind of knows what package is currently the best could you do a driver and car separate? Like what was done for 2010 on the "about the system page"

    Would be much more interesting to see is Alonso really doing that good? Do comeback drivers Kimi and Grosjean really deserve so much praise or is it the car? Schumacher's ranking now in his final year? Sauber or Williams drivers under performing the car?

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comments, ringclassics; I agree that the driver ratings would be more interesting. I am so busy trying to complete the whole Ratings System (1894-2012)for publication, that I have little time for my blog or for the Forums.

      Apologies for this late response, ringclassics.

      This season has been messed up by the tyre situation, and the races have not produced accurate ,relative speeds between competitors. This is borne out by Ross Brawn's comment that "the racing is so unpredictable this year, when it shouldn't be"; Michael Schumacher complaining of the low speed, tyre-saving driving, for which he is overfit, and Lewis H's comment after the Indian GP "that this was the first time this year that I have been able to really go all out and race, instead of cruising to look after the tyres."

      I am going to base the ratings mostly on pre-race times for 2012, as was done for 1950 and several other seasons, when race results skewed direct speed comparisons. What I can say now is that Alonso is really so good; I rate him up with the best of alltime, Fangio, Clark, Senna, etc. He is so error- free, despite starting from way back on the grids.

      My ratings are based on race-by-race stats, which are up to date, but I have yet to do a 2012 season summary.

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    2. I absolutely hate this tyre saving stuff and hope the gimmick will pass quickly. It's like how they messed up qualifying for a couple of years with the fuel load shenanigans.

      Thanks for the reply and will look forward to the book.

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